Strategic affairs expert Jasim Al-Gharabi affirmed today, Wednesday (May 6, 2026), that the recent escalation linked to targeting the United Arab Emirates reflects a clear return to the pattern of "indirect war" between Iran and the United States, likely to continue without sliding into comprehensive military confrontation in the near term.

He explained that both sides prefer managing the conflict through unconventional tools, such as economic pressures, cyber operations, and using regional parties, to avoid the cost of direct war.

He noted that the chances of success for international efforts to contain tensions remain limited but exist, pointing out that mediation channels, whether European or regional, may contribute to temporarily reducing escalation, but they do not address the roots of the dispute related to the Iranian nuclear file and Tehran's influence in the region.

He warned that any targeting of vital infrastructure or navigation routes in the Arabian Gulf represents a direct threat to regional stability, given the region's importance as a main corridor for global energy supplies. He added that oil markets are quickly affected by these developments, as rising geopolitical risks lead to increased oil prices and shipping insurance costs, impacting the global economy.

He indicated that the coming phase will be characterized by sharp fluctuations, with the scenario of "fragile containment" remaining the most likely, against existing risks of an uncalculated slide toward broader escalation.